Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The World's New Aristocracy: The Individual

There is absolutely no refuting the fact that the world today is vastly different from the world in which our grandparents grew up. In fact, this truth likely holds valid for our parents as well. Technological advancements, medical breakthroughs and greater access to information have all helped to bring about possibilities and new heights of achievement that our forefathers could never have even dreamed of. 

In recent years, we have boldly stepped into a new century, which not so coincidentally, represents a brand new area for financial markets worldwide. This new era is being fueled by a new player on the scene, a mighty new force, namely the individual. For instance, the number of individuals throughout the world who decide to become active market participants for the very first time is bigger in a week than it used to be in an entire year. At least this is true when compared to 1986, which is when I decided to become a professional speculator. 

We are still at the dawn of this new era, but the fact is, it no longer belongs to the large behometh-like institutions of old. It now belongs to the individual and over the ensuing years, the collective power of  individuals, even poor ones, will increase exponentially and be felt in ways heretofore never experienced.

The Power of the Individual Has Dawned
We are already seeing this "power of the individual" phenomenon take place throughout the whole world in very big ways. Once upon a time, the countries who maintained the greatest international prowess were those which held and controlled the greatest riches. "He who has the most gold wins" has been a mantra amongst countries for centuries. Historically, many of these dominating countries were much smaller than the countries they ruled over, at least in terms of the number of individuals which made up the country. But is this the case today? I think not. Power has shifted from collective monetary might to collective individual might. Let me give you some interesting facts to consider in this regard and then show you how we all can make money from these dynamic new changes.

Fact #1: If a Country was Poor Yesterday, it's likely to be Rich Today
In recent years, the countries with the greatest momentum and the fastest growth in terms of world power used to be considered poor or developing third world countries. Some of these countries include China, India and Brazil, just to name three. We all know how powerful China is today and just in case you've spent the last few years on Pluto, Brazil is the hottest spot for business on Earth. They are the cat's meow for the entire world at the current moment and they know it. India? Well let's just say many of the world's jobs have been gobbled up by them and when TATA, their biggest car manufacturer, comes out with the Nano, the worlds cheapest car priced just above $2,000, well...it's lights out for you know who. 

Fact #2: Poor Individuals are the New Aristocracy.
If you take the average individual living in China, India or Brazil and compare him/her to the average citizen living in the USA, Germany or the UK, you will quickly realize how much richer the individuals are in the West. Let's face it. The countries I just mentioned are still developing and are still largely made up of poverty stricken inhabitants. So where is the power coming from, you ask? I explained it to you already. The power is now inherent in the individual, not in what the individual possesses in terms of wealth per se. Numbers. It's all about numbers which bring me to my next interesting fact. 

Fact #3: Birth Control Has Always Been Power Control
Why do some of the wealthiest people on the planet today (Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, The Carnegies, The Mellons, The Rockefellers, etc.) passionately support population control? Well, I'd assume it's for many reasons, like the growing lack of resources, the diminishing pockets of clean drinking water and the disappearance of rain forests that could lead to no breathable air 10 million years from now. All of these things are important and are lauded as the driving forces behind the population control movement. But in truth, these reasons pale in comparison to the biggest reason of all: the need to retard the "Power of the Individual" Movement. Think about it. Where have the biggest efforts to control the world's population been directed? Ah! China, India and Brazil of course. Coincidence? I think not. Those who held the wealth yesterday saw a long time ago that the new power rules were going to change, unless the tide could be reversed somehow. The wealth of old came to know that power in the future would be transferred from the more traditional means of wealth to "numbers of people wealth." Instead of "he who has the most gold wins," we now have "he who has the most people wins." Wait until you here these shocking stats.


  • There are more people in the world today who own a cell phone than own a workable toilet. What's the growth potential for toilets? If developing countries begin to invest more in plumbing and irrigation, toilets will be one of the biggest growth possibilities of our lifetime. I now it sounds funny, but I think like this.China's number one mobile phone carrier has more than 500 million subscribers. That's 200 million more than all the people living in the USA. Wait. The second largest cell phone company in China has more than 200 million subscribers. Are you kidding me? These two numbers combined represent a  big percentage of the world's entire population. By the way, I'd love for each one of 700 million Chinese to text the word: wealth to 99222, my own mobile site. Try this if you have not as yet. It's pretty cool.

  • Most poor people throughout the world can't own a car priced at US$20,000, right? But how many of India's 1.1 billion people can afford one at $2,500, the price of India's soon to be launched Nano, the cheapest car in the world? How many of China's 1.5 billion, or Indonesia's population or even the poor in the USA will be ablew to afford the Nano?

If the collective purchasing power of poor people is more potent than the collective purchasing power of richer but smaller nations, then where would you want to do business if you manufactured pens, or tea-shirts or socks, or cheap watches, etc? Wait. Not so fast. If those same people you'd like to do business with more than anyone else also were willing to help you manufacture your goods for $5 per week versus the $500 a week you'd have to pay your own citizens, where would you prefer to move your company's jobs? Do you now see why for decades population control stood as the number one donated cause of wealthy foundations? Do you see why this is the era of the individual, and no longer the era of the wealthy country or wealth institution? And not just any individual, the poorer ones. There is obviously a huge benefit to having a large number of poor inhabitants today. The worlds jobs flock to you and the rest of the world begs to be allowed to take advantage of your large collective purchasing power. If everyone in China and India jumped up and down at the same time, the Earth would likely fall off its axis. Forget Nuclear warfare. "Hey, do we want, or we swear, we'll all jump!" Now THAT's power! 

So What Does This Mean For Us?
So, I know some of you are asking, "Oliver this sounds interesting and all, but so what? Is there a way to benefit? And if not, what's the quickest way to shoot myself in the head, because I'm now depressed.

Well there is a way to benefit and it's not by fighting the trend with population control, either. You can go with the trend, play with the power, by adding countries to the list of things you trade for wealth. Today with the use of ETFs you can buy and sell entire countries. So the next time your country is in the crapper and let's say Indonesia is kicking major butt, you can short your own country (as long as you don't consider that heretical), while going long Indonesia. It's time, my friends, to spread your winds beyond your little neighborhood. It's time to go global.

How to Judge The World
Below is a list of ETFs that represent all the major countries to keep track of. I look at them once every several weeks through the eyes of both the weekly and monthly charts. This once or twice a month activity takes me only 20 minutes or so and it helps keep my finger on the pulse of the world's hottest countries. I use the 50-period moving average and rate each country based on how far above or below this moving average it is. Those well above it are currently hot. Those well below it are currently not. Big Elephant Bars that form far above or far below the 50-ma indicate potential shifts in the world's country trends. It's as simple as that. So keep this list handy. It will serve as one of the many tools required to help you become the astute world speculators that I'm positive each of you can be.

The World At Your Finger Tips

Country Symbol
Country Name
Price
EWZ
Brazil
67.67
EWY
South Korea
46.45
EWK
Belgium
12.48
EWC
Canada
25.74
INP
India
56.62
EWM
Malaysia
10.67
EWJ
Japan
9.84
EZA
South Africa
52.48
EWH
Hong Kong
15.33
EWN
Netherlands
19.04
EWU
UK
15.42
FXI
China
39.10
EWS
Singapore
11.00
EWT
Taiwan
11.88
EWD
Sweden
23.25
EWG
Germany
20.00
EWQ
France
23.49
EWL
Switzerland
21.58
EWA
Australia
22.14
EWW
Mexico
48.49
EWP
Spain
39.71
EWI
Italy
17.01
RSX
Russia
30.85

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